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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vinny Magalhaes won · SUB R2

Elo1357

Elo1352

Igor PokrajacvsVinny MagalhaesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Vinny Magalhaes won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:14

Model Prediction: Igor Pokrajac wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Vinny Magalhaes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Igor Pokrajac at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Igor Pokrajac enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Igor Pokrajac is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Vinny Magalhaes has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Vinny Magalhaes has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Vinny Magalhaes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Pokrajac

Red Corner

Vinny Magalhaes

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1357

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor PokrajacL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fabio Maldonado · May 12

vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16

latest

Vinny MagalhaesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Davis · Apr 13

KOvs Anthony Perosh · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor PokrajacMetricVinny Magalhaes

2.25

Strikes / min

2.14

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

40%

Strike defense

68%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

1.55

51%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01evenly matched on net striking-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor PokrajacVinny Magalhaes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)Vinny Magalhaes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor PokrajacTargetVinny Magalhaes

By target zone

38% acc · 38%

Head

33% acc · 13%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 73%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

33% acc · 25%

Distance

33% acc · 7%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

92% acc · 80%

67% acc · 25%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Pokrajac rounds

even

Vinny Magalhaes rounds

Round 1Vinny Magalhaes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:32

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Igor Pokrajac edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:32

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 13

Sig Strikes

15 / 19

77%

Sig Str %

87.5%

22 / 31

Total Strikes

25 / 32

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinny Magalhaes	12 / 16	22 / 29	1 / 3	0
1	Igor Pokrajac	6 / 11	20 / 29	0 / 1	0
2	Vinny Magalhaes	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0	2
2	Igor Pokrajac	2 / 2	2 / 2	1 / 1	0

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Vinny Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3