Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Igor Pokrajac won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1357
Elo1351

Igor PokrajacvsTodd BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Igor Pokrajac won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Todd Brown wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Igor Pokrajac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Todd Brown at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Igor Pokrajac enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Igor Pokrajac is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Todd Brown has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Pokrajac
Red Corner
VS
Todd Brown
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1357
Elo
1351
47
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
188 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor PokrajacL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12
L
vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13
L
KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13
L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16
latest
Todd Brown
oldest →
L
vs Tim Boetsch · Aug 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor PokrajacMetricTodd Brown
2.25
Strikes / min
2.15
4.26
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
40%
Strike defense
48%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
0.00
51%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.01evenly matched on net striking-1.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1484Strikes20.8 vs 28.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -1.0
Igor PokrajacTodd Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)Todd Brown(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.7|Blue -5.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor PokrajacTargetTodd Brown

By target zone

17
45% acc · 100%
Head
6
43% acc · 40%
0
Body
3
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 40%

By position

14
40% acc · 82%
Distance
7
47% acc · 47%
3
100% acc · 18%
Clinch
8
100% acc · 53%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Igor Pokrajac rounds
0
even
0
Todd Brown rounds
Round 1Igor Pokrajac edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:35
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:06Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 38
Sig Strikes
15 / 23
44%
Sig Str %
65%
39 / 60
Total Strikes
24 / 32
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:35
Ctrl Time
2:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Todd Brown15 / 2324 / 320 / 30
1Igor Pokrajac17 / 3839 / 600 / 00

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights10

Todd Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2