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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1493

Igor PokrajacvsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jan Blachowicz at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Igor Pokrajac enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jan Blachowicz has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jan Blachowicz has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jan Blachowicz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Pokrajac

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1357

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor PokrajacL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fabio Maldonado · May 12

SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12

vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor PokrajacMetricJan Blachowicz

2.25

Strikes / min

3.55

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

40%

Strike defense

52%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.98

51%

Takedown defense

69%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor PokrajacJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.8|Blue +136.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor PokrajacTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

47% acc · 94%

Head

59% acc · 71%

67% acc · 6%

Body

80% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 43%

Distance

48% acc · 23%

65% acc · 31%

Clinch

73% acc · 30%

90% acc · 26%

Ground

71% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Pokrajac rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:33

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:45

53Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 73

Sig Strikes

98 / 153

45%

Sig Str %

60.3%

61 / 100

Total Strikes

148 / 210

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 4

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

8:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jan Blachowicz	12 / 24	26 / 40	1 / 1
1	Igor Pokrajac	9 / 17	22 / 30	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	53 / 78	64 / 89	2 / 2
2	Igor Pokrajac	22 / 44	28 / 50	0 / 1
3	Jan Blachowicz	33 / 51	58 / 81	1 / 1
3	Igor Pokrajac	4 / 12	11 / 20	0 / 0

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21