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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Igor Pokrajac won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1356

Igor PokrajacvsFabio MaldonadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Igor Pokrajac won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Igor Pokrajac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabio Maldonado at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Igor Pokrajac enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Fabio Maldonado has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Pokrajac

Red Corner

Fabio Maldonado

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1357

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor PokrajacL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12

vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16

latest

Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Mar 14

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor PokrajacMetricFabio Maldonado

2.25

Strikes / min

5.29

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

40%

Strike defense

53%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.44

51%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.01Δ 2.99 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor PokrajacFabio Maldonado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -189.0|Blue +189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor PokrajacTargetFabio Maldonado

By target zone

41% acc · 83%

Head

66% acc · 73%

100% acc · 3%

Body

93% acc · 27%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 67%

Distance

63% acc · 62%

59% acc · 28%

Clinch

93% acc · 38%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Pokrajac rounds

even

Fabio Maldonado rounds

Round 1Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:05

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:39

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:22

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 80

Sig Strikes

98 / 137

45.7%

Sig Str %

72.3%

64 / 111

Total Strikes

166 / 215

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fabio Maldonado	36 / 47	47 / 59	0 / 0
1	Igor Pokrajac	6 / 12	16 / 24	1 / 1
2	Fabio Maldonado	26 / 33	60 / 70	0 / 0
2	Igor Pokrajac	13 / 30	18 / 35	0 / 3
3	Fabio Maldonado	36 / 57	59 / 86	0 / 1
3	Igor Pokrajac	17 / 38	30 / 52	0 / 0

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11