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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1530

Igor AraujovsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Igor Araujo wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Igor Araujo at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Strickland has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sean Strickland has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Araujo

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-470

(82%)

1355

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor Araujo

oldest →

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Oct 13

vs Danny Mitchell · Mar 14

KOvs George Sullivan · Sep 14

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor AraujoMetricSean Strickland

1.52

Strikes / min

5.98

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

49%

Strike defense

60%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.66

22%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.34Δ 2.79 — meaningful gap+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor AraujoSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Araujo(4 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -175.3|Blue +175.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +162.0|Blue -162.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor AraujoTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

30% acc · 28%

Head

39% acc · 86%

52% acc · 36%

Body

75% acc · 8%

78% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

49% acc · 87%

Distance

32% acc · 45%

42% acc · 13%

Clinch

57% acc · 24%

Ground

56% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Araujo rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:18

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 82

Sig Strikes

71 / 169

50%

Sig Str %

41%

48 / 92

Total Strikes

87 / 188

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

5:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Strickland	40 / 81	52 / 96	1 / 1	0
1	Igor Araujo	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Strickland	13 / 30	16 / 33	1 / 1	2
2	Igor Araujo	9 / 15	16 / 23	0 / 2	0
3	Sean Strickland	18 / 58	19 / 59	1 / 1	0
3	Igor Araujo	16 / 38	18 / 40	0 / 1	0

Igor Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25