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Welterweight
3 Rounds
George Sullivan won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1355
Elo1367

Igor AraujovsGeorge SullivanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

George Sullivan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:31

Model Prediction: Igor Araujo wins(54.6%)

Actual result: George Sullivan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Igor Araujo at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • George Sullivan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • George Sullivan has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Igor Araujo has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Araujo
Red Corner
VS
George Sullivan
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1355
Elo
1367
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor Araujo
oldest →
W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Oct 13
W
vs Danny Mitchell · Mar 14
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jul 15
latest
George SullivanL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Tim Means · Apr 15
W
vs Dominic Waters · Jul 15
L
KOvs Alexander Yakovlev · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Niko Price · Jan 18
L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor AraujoMetricGeorge Sullivan
1.52
Strikes / min
3.53
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
49%
Strike defense
57%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
1.37
22%
Takedown defense
38%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.34Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1538 vs 1519Strikes16.5 vs 61.0Takedowns0.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Igor AraujoGeorge Sullivan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Igor Araujo(4 fights)George Sullivan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -12.2|Blue +12.2
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor AraujoTargetGeorge Sullivan

By target zone

2
20% acc · 25%
Head
32
62% acc · 74%
2
40% acc · 25%
Body
8
100% acc · 19%
4
80% acc · 50%
Leg
3
100% acc · 7%

By position

7
37% acc · 88%
Distance
5
21% acc · 12%
1
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 5%
0
Ground
36
97% acc · 84%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Igor Araujo rounds
0
even
2
George Sullivan rounds
Round 1George Sullivan edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:35Control
Round 2George Sullivan edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 20
Sig Strikes
43 / 63
40%
Sig Str %
67%
8 / 20
Total Strikes
111 / 137
2 / 7
TDs
1 / 2
25%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1George Sullivan30 / 4380 / 981 / 10
1Igor Araujo5 / 135 / 132 / 40
2George Sullivan13 / 2031 / 390 / 10
2Igor Araujo3 / 73 / 70 / 30

Igor Araujo

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

George Sullivan

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7