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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Ignacio Bahamondes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1505

Ignacio BahamondesvsTrey OgdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Ignacio Bahamondes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fightervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Ignacio Bahamondes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ignacio Bahamondes at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Ogden has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ignacio Bahamondes

Red Corner

Trey Ogden

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1502

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ignacio BahamondesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Sep 24

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Mar 25

vs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 25

vs Tofiq Musayev · Mar 26

latest

Trey Ogden

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24

vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24

vs Thiago Moises · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ignacio BahamondesMetricTrey Ogden

5.99

Strikes / min

3.20

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.89

70%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.92Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ignacio BahamondesTrey Ogden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ignacio BahamondesTargetTrey Ogden

By target zone

32% acc · 28%

Head

30% acc · 57%

46% acc · 30%

Body

67% acc · 24%

87% acc · 41%

Leg

62% acc · 19%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

even

Trey Ogden rounds

Round 1Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 200

Sig Strikes

42 / 109

48.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

99 / 200

Total Strikes

42 / 109

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trey Ogden	9 / 22	9 / 22	0 / 0
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	26 / 51	26 / 51	0 / 0
2	Trey Ogden	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 1
2	Ignacio Bahamondes	30 / 66	30 / 66	0 / 0
3	Trey Ogden	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 0
3	Ignacio Bahamondes	43 / 83	43 / 83	0 / 0

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6