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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tofiq Musayev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1509

Ignacio BahamondesvsTofiq MusayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Tofiq Musayev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fightervsTofiq Musayev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tofiq Musayev wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Tofiq Musayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tofiq Musayev at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ignacio Bahamondes has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ignacio Bahamondes has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ignacio Bahamondes

Red Corner

Tofiq Musayev

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1502

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ignacio Bahamondes

oldest →

vs Ludovit Klein · Aug 23

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Sep 24

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Mar 25

vs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 25

latest

Tofiq Musayev

oldest →

SUBvs Myktybek Orolbai · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ignacio BahamondesMetricTofiq Musayev

5.99

Strikes / min

1.84

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

1.74

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.30

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.92Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ignacio BahamondesTofiq Musayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)Tofiq Musayev(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.3|Blue +7.3

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ignacio BahamondesTargetTofiq Musayev

By target zone

47% acc · 50%

Head

46% acc · 79%

59% acc · 31%

Body

63% acc · 15%

55% acc · 19%

Leg

40% acc · 6%

By position

47% acc · 69%

Distance

35% acc · 35%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

67% acc · 19%

Ground

61% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

even

Tofiq Musayev rounds

Round 1Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Tofiq Musayev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:18Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Tofiq Musayev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:07

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 62

Sig Strikes

34 / 72

49.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

46 / 83

Total Strikes

93 / 167

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

7:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tofiq Musayev	11 / 32	20 / 42	1 / 3	0
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	20 / 39	21 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Tofiq Musayev	17 / 29	44 / 74	1 / 1	0
2	Ignacio Bahamondes	9 / 16	19 / 28	0 / 1	2
3	Tofiq Musayev	6 / 11	29 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Ignacio Bahamondes	3 / 7	6 / 10	0 / 0	0

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Tofiq Musayev

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2