Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ibo Aslan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1468

Elo1436

Ibo AslanvsRafael CerqueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ibo Aslan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:51

Model Prediction: Ibo Aslan wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Ibo Aslan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ibo Aslan at -108 American odds

+$93 profit

$193 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ibo Aslan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ibo Aslan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Cerqueira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ibo Aslan has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ibo Aslan has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Cerqueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ibo Aslan

Red Corner

Rafael Cerqueira

Blue Corner

-108

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1468

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ibo AslanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Mar 24

SUBvs Ion Cutelaba · Feb 25

vs Billy Elekana · Jul 25

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Dec 25

latest

Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 25

vs Julius Walker · Aug 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ibo AslanMetricRafael Cerqueira

5.75

Strikes / min

1.56

3.96

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

56%

Strike defense

36%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

87%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.79Δ 5.28 — meaningful gap-3.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ibo AslanRafael Cerqueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ibo Aslan(5 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.1|Blue -32.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ibo AslanTargetRafael Cerqueira

By target zone

79% acc · 93%

Head

100% acc · 7%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

78% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ibo Aslan rounds

even

Rafael Cerqueira rounds

Round 1Ibo Aslan edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 36

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

77%

Sig Str %

100%

28 / 36

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Cerqueira	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Ibo Aslan	28 / 36	28 / 36	0 / 0	0

Ibo Aslan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5

Rafael Cerqueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4