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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Iasmin Lucindo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1525

Elo1476

Iasmin LucindovsBrogan WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Iasmin Lucindo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Iasmin Lucindo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iasmin Lucindo at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Iasmin Lucindo has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Iasmin Lucindo has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brogan Walker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Iasmin Lucindo

Red Corner

Brogan Walker

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1525

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'3"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Iasmin Lucindo

oldest →

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Aug 23

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 24

vs Marina Rodriguez · Oct 24

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 25

vs Angela Hill · Aug 25

latest

Brogan WalkerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Juliana Miller · Aug 22

vs Veronica Hardy · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Iasmin LucindoMetricBrogan Walker

3.22

Strikes / min

1.84

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

62%

Strike defense

47%

2.28

TDs / 15 min

1.02

68%

Takedown defense

11%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.42Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Iasmin LucindoBrogan Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Iasmin Lucindo(7 fights)Brogan Walker(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.8|Blue -48.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Iasmin LucindoTargetBrogan Walker

By target zone

35% acc · 62%

Head

6% acc · 21%

83% acc · 36%

Body

59% acc · 45%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

42% acc · 34%

By position

44% acc · 96%

Distance

16% acc · 76%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

88% acc · 24%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Iasmin Lucindo rounds

even

Brogan Walker rounds

Round 1Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control0:44

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control0:02

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 118

Sig Strikes

29 / 145

43.3%

Sig Str %

20%

57 / 123

Total Strikes

31 / 149

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brogan Walker	8 / 50	8 / 50	0 / 0
1	Iasmin Lucindo	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 0
2	Brogan Walker	12 / 42	14 / 46	0 / 0
2	Iasmin Lucindo	11 / 29	15 / 34	2 / 3
3	Brogan Walker	9 / 53	9 / 53	0 / 0
3	Iasmin Lucindo	25 / 46	25 / 46	2 / 2

Iasmin Lucindo

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Brogan Walker

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3