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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ian McCall won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Ian McCallvsIliarde SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Ian McCall won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIan McCall: WrestlervsIliarde Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ian McCall wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Ian McCall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian McCall at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ian McCall has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ian McCall

Red Corner

Iliarde Santos

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+405

(20%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian McCall

oldest →

vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 12

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 13

vs Brad Pickett · Jul 14

vs John Lineker · Jan 15

latest

Iliarde SantosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 13

KOvs Chris Cariaso · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian McCallMetricIliarde Santos

3.59

Strikes / min

3.00

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

6.10

67%

Strike defense

57%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

1.66

88%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34Δ 3.44 — meaningful gap-3.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ian McCallIliarde Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian McCall(5 fights)Iliarde Santos(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.9|Blue -137.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +3.8|Blue -3.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian McCallTargetIliarde Santos

By target zone

24% acc · 37%

Head

20% acc · 74%

47% acc · 15%

Body

70% acc · 16%

77% acc · 48%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

25% acc · 95%

29% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

40% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian McCall rounds

even

Iliarde Santos rounds

Round 1Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:37

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Ian McCall edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 226

Sig Strikes

43 / 172

40.3%

Sig Str %

25%

104 / 241

Total Strikes

46 / 176

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 7

16.5%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Iliarde Santos	12 / 46	14 / 48	0 / 2
1	Ian McCall	34 / 78	42 / 86	0 / 0
2	Iliarde Santos	16 / 59	16 / 60	1 / 1
2	Ian McCall	31 / 77	35 / 82	0 / 2
3	Iliarde Santos	15 / 67	16 / 68	0 / 4
3	Ian McCall	27 / 71	27 / 73	1 / 3

Ian McCall

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Iliarde Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3