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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Elo1497

Ian Machado GarryvsSong KenanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:22

Style matchupIan Machado Garry: Well-roundedvsSong Kenan: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Ian Machado Garry

Red Corner

Song Kenan

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1541

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Song Kenan

oldest →

KOvs Max Griffin · Mar 21

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 23

vs Kevin Jousset · Dec 23

vs Ricky Glenn · Aug 24

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian Machado GarryMetricSong Kenan

4.78

Strikes / min

4.49

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

52%

Strike defense

51%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

0.42

80%

Takedown defense

73%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.92Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ian Machado GarrySong Kenan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Song Kenan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.0|Blue -44.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian Machado GarryTargetSong Kenan

By target zone

39% acc · 46%

Head

26% acc · 33%

78% acc · 28%

Body

89% acc · 15%

92% acc · 26%

Leg

91% acc · 53%

By position

119

54% acc · 94%

Distance

48% acc · 82%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

88% acc · 13%

70% acc · 6%

Ground

38% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian Machado Garry rounds

even

Song Kenan rounds

Round 1Song Kenan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes70

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 231

Sig Strikes

55 / 110

50.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

127 / 231

Total Strikes

61 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Song Kenan	22 / 41	28 / 51	2 / 3
1	Ian Machado Garry	15 / 44	15 / 44	0 / 0
2	Song Kenan	17 / 35	17 / 35	0 / 0
2	Ian Machado Garry	42 / 79	42 / 79	0 / 0
3	Song Kenan	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 0
3	Ian Machado Garry	70 / 108	70 / 108	0 / 0

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Song Kenan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11