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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Elo1545

Ian Machado GarryvsMichael PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Page enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Page has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
Michael Page has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ian Machado Garry

Red Corner

Michael Page

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+154

(39%)

1541

Elo

1545

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 23

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Michael PageW4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25

vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian Machado GarryMetricMichael Page

4.78

Strikes / min

2.28

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

1.51

52%

Strike defense

62%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

0.19

80%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.92Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ian Machado GarryMichael Page

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.4|Blue +4.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian Machado GarryTargetMichael Page

By target zone

46% acc · 63%

Head

54% acc · 71%

43% acc · 16%

Body

80% acc · 19%

67% acc · 21%

Leg

40% acc · 10%

By position

36% acc · 47%

Distance

56% acc · 90%

71% acc · 26%

Clinch

0% acc

71% acc · 26%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian Machado Garry rounds

even

Michael Page rounds

Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:52

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:41

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:56

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 39

Sig Strikes

21 / 38

47%

Sig Str %

49.3%

65 / 101

Total Strikes

52 / 74

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:29

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Page	2 / 6	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Ian Machado Garry	2 / 6	27 / 41	1 / 1	2
2	Michael Page	14 / 23	31 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Ian Machado Garry	9 / 21	10 / 22	0 / 1	0
3	Michael Page	5 / 9	14 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Ian Machado Garry	8 / 12	28 / 38	1 / 3	0

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Michael Page

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5