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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R5
Elo1541
Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration
Elo1567

Ian Machado GarryvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupIan Machado Garry: Well-roundedvsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(76.8%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Carlos Prates enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).
  • Carlos Prates has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ian Machado Garry
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Prates
Blue Corner
-164
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
1541
Elo
1567
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian Machado Garry
oldest →
W
vs Neil Magny · Aug 23
W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24
W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24
W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25
latest
Carlos PratesW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24
W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24
W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25
W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25
W
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian Machado GarryMetricCarlos Prates
4.78
Strikes / min
4.41
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
52%
Strike defense
47%
0.92
TDs / 15 min
0.18
80%
Takedown defense
77%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.92Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1583 vs 1581Strikes4.8 vs 3.8Takedowns0.9 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Ian Machado GarryCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901513153515581580← oldermost recent →
Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -26.7|Blue +26.7
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian Machado GarryTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

86
46% acc · 68%
Head
38
39% acc · 60%
17
61% acc · 13%
Body
16
76% acc · 25%
23
79% acc · 18%
Leg
9
82% acc · 14%

By position

120
52% acc · 95%
Distance
50
44% acc · 79%
2
33% acc · 2%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 2%
4
80% acc · 3%
Ground
12
92% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Ian Machado Garry rounds
0
even
0
Carlos Prates rounds
Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:12
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns2
Control1:25
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 4Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns2
Control0:58
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:34
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
126 / 242
Sig Strikes
63 / 129
52%
Sig Str %
48%
141 / 259
Total Strikes
64 / 132
4 / 19
TDs
0 / 0
18.8%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:09
Ctrl Time
1:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Prates7 / 167 / 160 / 00
1Ian Machado Garry15 / 3915 / 390 / 10
2Carlos Prates12 / 2212 / 220 / 00
2Ian Machado Garry34 / 6836 / 700 / 20
3Carlos Prates10 / 2010 / 200 / 00
3Ian Machado Garry26 / 5233 / 602 / 30
4Ian Machado Garry23 / 4226 / 452 / 70
4Carlos Prates12 / 3312 / 330 / 00
5Carlos Prates22 / 3823 / 410 / 00
5Ian Machado Garry28 / 4131 / 450 / 60

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7