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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ian Loveland won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Ian LovelandvsTyler TonerUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ian Loveland won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ian Loveland wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Ian Loveland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Loveland at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ian Loveland has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ian Loveland

Red Corner

Tyler Toner

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian LovelandL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joseph Benavidez · Mar 11

vs Yves Jabouin · Aug 11

latest

Tyler TonerNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian LovelandMetricTyler Toner

2.71

Strikes / min

2.95

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

64%

Strike defense

62%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

69%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian Loveland(3 fights)Tyler Toner(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.1|Blue +139.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian LovelandTargetTyler Toner

By target zone

38% acc · 89%

Head

16% acc · 48%

57% acc · 9%

Body

80% acc · 19%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

58% acc · 33%

By position

37% acc · 70%

Distance

26% acc · 95%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

40% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian Loveland rounds

even

Tyler Toner rounds

Round 1Ian Loveland edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control4:50

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ian Loveland edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:33

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Ian Loveland edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 112

Sig Strikes

21 / 78

40%

Sig Str %

53.3%

75 / 149

Total Strikes

30 / 87

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyler Toner	1 / 1	3 / 3	0 / 0
1	Ian Loveland	10 / 23	35 / 54	0 / 0
2	Tyler Toner	9 / 22	16 / 29	0 / 0
2	Ian Loveland	14 / 34	20 / 40	0 / 0
3	Tyler Toner	11 / 55	11 / 55	0 / 0
3	Ian Loveland	20 / 55	20 / 55	0 / 0

Ian Loveland

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Tyler Toner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1