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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Omari Akhmedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1405

Elo1494

Ian HeinischvsOmari AkhmedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Omari Akhmedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIan Heinisch: Well-roundedvsOmari Akhmedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ian Heinisch wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Omari Akhmedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Heinisch at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ian Heinisch

Red Corner

Omari Akhmedov

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1405

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ian HeinischL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · May 19

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Feb 21

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Mar 19

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ian HeinischMetricOmari Akhmedov

3.25

Strikes / min

2.97

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.58

59%

Takedown defense

65%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ian HeinischOmari Akhmedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ian Heinisch(7 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -89.1|Blue +89.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ian HeinischTargetOmari Akhmedov

By target zone

42% acc · 49%

Head

29% acc · 75%

48% acc · 25%

Body

43% acc · 18%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

49% acc · 87%

Distance

30% acc · 87%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ian Heinisch rounds

even

Omari Akhmedov rounds

Round 1Omari Akhmedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:51

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Ian Heinisch edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:38

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 103

Sig Strikes

55 / 166

50.7%

Sig Str %

33%

70 / 121

Total Strikes

69 / 180

3 / 10

TDs

2 / 4

24.3%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Omari Akhmedov	19 / 54	21 / 56	1 / 1
1	Ian Heinisch	13 / 28	17 / 32	0 / 2
2	Omari Akhmedov	18 / 60	25 / 67	1 / 1
2	Ian Heinisch	17 / 31	19 / 33	1 / 3
3	Omari Akhmedov	18 / 52	23 / 57	0 / 2
3	Ian Heinisch	23 / 44	34 / 56	2 / 5

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14