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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Kelleher won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1489

Hunter AzurevsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Brian Kelleher won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:40

Style matchupHunter Azure: Submission grapplervsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Hunter Azure wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hunter Azure at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Hunter Azure

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1493

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hunter Azure

oldest →

vs Brad Katona · Sep 19

vs Cole Smith · Sep 20

vs Jack Shore · Apr 21

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hunter AzureMetricBrian Kelleher

3.92

Strikes / min

3.31

2.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

1.68

67%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 3.12 — meaningful gap-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hunter AzureBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hunter Azure(4 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hunter AzureTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

26% acc · 62%

62% acc · 21%

Body

29% acc · 17%

92% acc · 19%

Leg

43% acc · 21%

By position

48% acc · 95%

Distance

28% acc · 93%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hunter Azure rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Hunter Azure edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 132

Sig Strikes

29 / 99

46.5%

Sig Str %

29%

67 / 139

Total Strikes

32 / 102

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brian Kelleher	10 / 50	10 / 50	0 / 4
1	Hunter Azure	36 / 73	37 / 74	0 / 0
2	Brian Kelleher	19 / 49	22 / 52	0 / 0
2	Hunter Azure	26 / 59	30 / 65	0 / 0

Hunter Azure

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17