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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Austin Arnett won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1491

Humberto BandenayvsAustin ArnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Austin Arnett won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHumberto Bandenay: WrestlervsAustin Arnett: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Austin Arnett wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Austin Arnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Arnett at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Arnett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Arnett has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Humberto Bandenay (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Humberto Bandenay

Red Corner

Austin Arnett

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1375

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Humberto BandenayL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Martin Bravo · Aug 17

KOvs Gabriel Benitez · May 18

DECvs Luiz Garagorri · Aug 19

latest

Austin ArnettL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Jan 18

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jul 18

vs Shane Young · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Humberto BandenayMetricAustin Arnett

2.22

Strikes / min

4.52

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

41%

Strike defense

62%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

0.44

62%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.57evenly matched on net striking-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Humberto BandenayAustin Arnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Humberto Bandenay(4 fights)Austin Arnett(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -116.3|Blue +116.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Humberto BandenayTargetAustin Arnett

By target zone

20% acc · 40%

Head

59% acc · 58%

67% acc · 33%

Body

73% acc · 41%

73% acc · 27%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

32% acc · 80%

Distance

56% acc · 54%

67% acc · 20%

Clinch

73% acc · 22%

Ground

82% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Humberto Bandenay rounds

even

Austin Arnett rounds

Round 1Humberto Bandenay edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Austin Arnett edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:13

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 3Austin Arnett edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 85

Sig Strikes

74 / 116

33.3%

Sig Str %

62.3%

31 / 87

Total Strikes

95 / 139

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

66.7%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

5:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Arnett	17 / 31	19 / 33	0 / 2
1	Humberto Bandenay	20 / 48	21 / 50	1 / 1
2	Austin Arnett	24 / 42	27 / 45	0 / 3
2	Humberto Bandenay	7 / 15	7 / 15	1 / 1
3	Austin Arnett	33 / 43	49 / 61	1 / 1
3	Humberto Bandenay	3 / 22	3 / 22	0 / 1

Humberto Bandenay

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Austin Arnett

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4