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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Enrique Barzola won · U-DEC R3
Elo1358
Horacio Gutierrez
Elo1492
Enrique Barzola

Horacio GutierrezvsEnrique BarzolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Enrique Barzola won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Horacio Gutierrez wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Enrique Barzola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Horacio Gutierrez at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Enrique Barzola has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Enrique Barzola has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Enrique Barzola (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Horacio Gutierrez
Red Corner
VS
Enrique Barzola
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1358
Elo
1492
35
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Horacio Gutierrez
oldest →
L
KOvs Teruto Ishihara · Aug 16
latest
Enrique Barzola
oldest →
W
vs Matt Bessette · Jan 18
W
vs Brandon Davis · May 18
L
vs Kevin Aguilar · Mar 19
W
vs Bobby Moffett · Aug 19
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Horacio GutierrezMetricEnrique Barzola
0.86
Strikes / min
3.91
2.91
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
46%
Strike defense
68%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.20
50%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.05Δ 2.99 — meaningful gap+0.94
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Horacio Gutierrez(2 fights)Enrique Barzola(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -134.3|Blue +134.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Horacio GutierrezTargetEnrique Barzola

By target zone

6
20% acc · 60%
Head
31
49% acc · 82%
0
Body
6
86% acc · 16%
4
50% acc · 40%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

6
19% acc · 60%
Distance
6
50% acc · 16%
4
67% acc · 40%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 5%
0
Ground
30
53% acc · 79%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Horacio Gutierrez rounds
0
even
3
Enrique Barzola rounds
Round 1Enrique Barzola edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:43Control
Round 2Enrique Barzola edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:27Control
Round 3Enrique Barzola edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 38
Sig Strikes
38 / 71
31%
Sig Str %
54.7%
16 / 45
Total Strikes
173 / 221
0 / 0
TDs
5 / 9
—
TD %
64.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
11:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Enrique Barzola13 / 2537 / 543 / 50
1Horacio Gutierrez4 / 185 / 190 / 00
2Enrique Barzola11 / 1767 / 791 / 10
2Horacio Gutierrez3 / 66 / 100 / 00
3Enrique Barzola14 / 2969 / 881 / 30
3Horacio Gutierrez3 / 145 / 160 / 00

Horacio Gutierrez

Stance—
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Enrique Barzola

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9