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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Holly Holm won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1527

Holly HolmvsYana SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yana Santos wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yana Santos at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Holly Holm has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Yana Santos

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1497

Elo

1527

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly HolmL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Jul 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Yana SantosW3 streak

oldest →

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 23

vs Chelsea Chandler · Aug 24

vs Miesha Tate · May 25

vs Macy Chiasson · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricYana Santos

3.13

Strikes / min

4.41

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.12

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.78

76%

Takedown defense

51%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmYana Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Yana Santos(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.5|Blue +29.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetYana Santos

By target zone

47% acc · 72%

Head

14% acc · 14%

67% acc · 25%

Body

89% acc · 38%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 48%

By position

42% acc · 44%

Distance

41% acc · 71%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 29%

56% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Yana Santos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:41

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:09

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:59

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 63

Sig Strikes

21 / 46

51.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

105 / 163

Total Strikes

120 / 185

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:49

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yana Santos	12 / 25	50 / 76	0 / 0
1	Holly Holm	7 / 16	24 / 36	1 / 1
2	Yana Santos	7 / 12	38 / 56	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	16 / 33	43 / 67	1 / 1
3	Yana Santos	2 / 9	32 / 53	0 / 0
3	Holly Holm	9 / 14	38 / 60	2 / 4

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Yana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5