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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1497

Elo1526

Holly HolmvsValentina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsValentina Shevchenko: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Holly Holm wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Holly Holm at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Valentina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1497

Elo

1526

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricValentina Shevchenko

3.13

Strikes / min

3.04

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

55%

Strike defense

63%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

2.65

76%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmValentina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetValentina Shevchenko

By target zone

14% acc · 37%

Head

37% acc · 51%

38% acc · 20%

Body

23% acc · 3%

53% acc · 43%

Leg

77% acc · 46%

By position

24% acc · 93%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:03

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:20

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:22

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 211

Sig Strikes

87 / 185

28.2%

Sig Str %

51.4%

73 / 231

Total Strikes

119 / 217

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Valentina Shevchenko	13 / 27	21 / 35	1 / 1
1	Holly Holm	15 / 28	23 / 36	0 / 0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	18 / 33	24 / 39	0 / 1
2	Holly Holm	11 / 38	15 / 42	0 / 0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	14 / 18	32 / 36	2 / 2
3	Holly Holm	4 / 17	10 / 24	0 / 0
4	Holly Holm	9 / 50	9 / 50	0 / 0
4	Valentina Shevchenko	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 2
5	Valentina Shevchenko	21 / 58	21 / 58	0 / 1
5	Holly Holm	15 / 78	16 / 79	0 / 0

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18