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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Holly Holm won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1504

Holly HolmvsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1497

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Jul 19

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricRaquel Pennington

3.13

Strikes / min

4.10

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

55%

Strike defense

61%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.83

76%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

36% acc · 40%

Head

21% acc · 24%

50% acc · 30%

Body

90% acc · 71%

82% acc · 30%

Leg

40% acc · 5%

By position

40% acc · 67%

Distance

22% acc · 26%

83% acc · 33%

Clinch

88% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:48

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:07

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:21

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 62

Sig Strikes

38 / 78

49%

Sig Str %

47.3%

81 / 129

Total Strikes

55 / 95

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:16

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raquel Pennington	5 / 14	7 / 16	1 / 1
1	Holly Holm	6 / 12	26 / 39	0 / 0
2	Raquel Pennington	19 / 27	28 / 36	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	9 / 17	32 / 44	0 / 1
3	Raquel Pennington	14 / 37	20 / 43	0 / 1
3	Holly Holm	15 / 33	23 / 46	0 / 2

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19