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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Miesha Tate won · SUB R5

Elo1497

Elo1495

Holly HolmvsMiesha TateUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miesha Tate won

SUB · Round 5 · 3:30

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsMiesha Tate: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Holly Holm wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Miesha Tate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Holly Holm at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Holly Holm has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).
Holly Holm has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Miesha Tate

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1497

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Miesha Tate

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Jul 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 21

vs Lauren Murphy · Jul 22

SUBvs Julia Avila · Dec 23

vs Yana Santos · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricMiesha Tate

3.13

Strikes / min

2.62

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

55%

Strike defense

51%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

1.97

76%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmMiesha Tate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Miesha Tate(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetMiesha Tate

By target zone

32% acc · 59%

Head

35% acc · 73%

76% acc · 27%

Body

58% acc · 18%

67% acc · 14%

Leg

44% acc · 10%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

30% acc · 65%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

83% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Miesha Tate rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Miesha Tate edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:30Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:40

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 5Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:11

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 142

Sig Strikes

40 / 104

44%

Sig Str %

40.8%

68 / 151

Total Strikes

65 / 132

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

26.6%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Miesha Tate	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 1	0
1	Holly Holm	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Miesha Tate	11 / 18	29 / 36	1 / 1	1
2	Holly Holm	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Miesha Tate	7 / 23	8 / 24	0 / 2	0
3	Holly Holm	13 / 41	13 / 41	0 / 0	0
4	Holly Holm	14 / 40	22 / 48	0 / 0	0
4	Miesha Tate	7 / 22	12 / 29	0 / 2	0
5	Miesha Tate	8 / 14	9 / 16	1 / 3	1
5	Holly Holm	17 / 31	18 / 32	0 / 0	0

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Miesha Tate

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14