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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Holly Holm won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1404

Holly HolmvsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marion Reneau wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marion Reneau at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Holly Holm has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1497

Elo

1404

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricMarion Reneau

3.13

Strikes / min

3.20

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

55%

Strike defense

59%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.62

76%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.7|Blue -93.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

26% acc · 42%

Head

14% acc · 19%

53% acc · 38%

Body

54% acc · 58%

46% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 23%

By position

36% acc · 97%

Distance

33% acc · 92%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:27

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 178

Sig Strikes

26 / 75

36%

Sig Str %

34.7%

70 / 184

Total Strikes

32 / 82

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marion Reneau	5 / 21	6 / 22	0 / 0
1	Holly Holm	14 / 45	14 / 45	0 / 0
2	Marion Reneau	12 / 23	13 / 25	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	24 / 56	27 / 59	0 / 0
3	Marion Reneau	9 / 31	13 / 35	0 / 0
3	Holly Holm	27 / 77	29 / 80	1 / 1

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12