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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Ketlen Vieira won · S-DEC R5
Elo1497
Holly Holm
Elo1515
Ketlen Vieira

Holly HolmvsKetlen VieiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Vieira won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsKetlen Vieira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ketlen Vieira wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Ketlen Vieira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ketlen Vieira at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm
Red Corner
VS
Ketlen Vieira
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1497
Elo
1515
44
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm
oldest →
L
KOvs Amanda Nunes · Jul 19
W
vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20
W
vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20
W
vs Yana Santos · Mar 23
L
SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24
latest
Ketlen Vieira
oldest →
W
vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23
L
vs Kayla Harrison · Oct 24
W
vs Macy Chiasson · May 25
L
vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25
W
DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricKetlen Vieira
3.13
Strikes / min
2.76
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.75
55%
Strike defense
50%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
1.33
76%
Takedown defense
90%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.21Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1557Strikes3.1 vs 3.0Takedowns0.9 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.60Form0.7 vs 0.4
Holly HolmKetlen Vieira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Holly Holm(10 fights)Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -17.1|Blue +17.1
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +413.0|Blue -413.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetKetlen Vieira

By target zone

26
33% acc · 27%
Head
49
45% acc · 58%
34
85% acc · 35%
Body
29
85% acc · 34%
36
95% acc · 38%
Leg
7
88% acc · 8%

By position

76
57% acc · 79%
Distance
49
45% acc · 58%
20
83% acc · 21%
Clinch
32
86% acc · 38%
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Holly Holm rounds
1
even
1
Ketlen Vieira rounds
Round 1Ketlen Vieira edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control3:36
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Holly Holm edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:46
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:56Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control2:50
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 4Holly Holm edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:09
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Holly Holm edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control1:42
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
96 / 157
Sig Strikes
85 / 151
63.6%
Sig Str %
58%
188 / 263
Total Strikes
122 / 190
0 / 6
TDs
1 / 7
0%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
10:03
Ctrl Time
1:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ketlen Vieira19 / 2240 / 450 / 50
1Holly Holm6 / 933 / 410 / 00
2Ketlen Vieira10 / 2217 / 291 / 11
2Holly Holm14 / 2133 / 440 / 20
3Ketlen Vieira23 / 3727 / 410 / 00
3Holly Holm18 / 3042 / 560 / 20
4Holly Holm37 / 6837 / 680 / 00
4Ketlen Vieira23 / 5123 / 510 / 00
5Ketlen Vieira10 / 1915 / 240 / 10
5Holly Holm21 / 2943 / 540 / 20

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights15

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14