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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Kayla Harrison won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1527

Holly HolmvsKayla HarrisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kayla Harrison won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:47

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsKayla Harrison: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kayla Harrison wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Kayla Harrison wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kayla Harrison at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kayla Harrison has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kayla Harrison has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Kayla Harrison

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-455

(82%)

1497

Elo

1527

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Jul 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

latest

Kayla HarrisonW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ketlen Vieira · Oct 24

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricKayla Harrison

3.13

Strikes / min

4.29

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

55%

Strike defense

66%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

2.84

76%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmKayla Harrison

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Kayla Harrison(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.8|Blue +29.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetKayla Harrison

By target zone

11% acc · 50%

Head

70% acc · 90%

33% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

10% acc · 50%

Distance

40% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

50% acc · 50%

Ground

79% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Kayla Harrison rounds

Round 1Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:15

46Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 2Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 12

Sig Strikes

51 / 71

16%

Sig Str %

64.5%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

68 / 91

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

4:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kayla Harrison	46 / 62	56 / 73	1 / 3	0
1	Holly Holm	1 / 6	6 / 11	0 / 1	0
2	Kayla Harrison	5 / 9	12 / 18	1 / 2	1
2	Holly Holm	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Kayla Harrison

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3