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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Holly Holm won · U-DEC

Elo1497

Elo1499

Holly HolmvsIrene AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

U-DEC

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsIrene Aldana: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Irene Aldana wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Irene Aldana at +103 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Irene Aldana

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+103

(49%)

1497

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Jul 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Irene Aldana

oldest →

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricIrene Aldana

3.13

Strikes / min

5.19

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.15

76%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmIrene Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Irene Aldana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetIrene Aldana

By target zone

38% acc · 53%

Head

30% acc · 55%

82% acc · 36%

Body

40% acc · 17%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

70% acc · 28%

By position

140

51% acc · 91%

Distance

36% acc · 94%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

46% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Irene Aldana rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:39

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:19

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:06

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 4Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:33

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns1

Control0:39

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

154 / 301

Sig Strikes

69 / 185

50.4%

Sig Str %

37%

187 / 342

Total Strikes

92 / 210

5 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

36.4%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:16

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Irene Aldana	12 / 31	13 / 32	0 / 0
1	Holly Holm	21 / 50	31 / 60	1 / 3
2	Irene Aldana	12 / 32	17 / 37	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	23 / 47	27 / 53	1 / 3
3	Irene Aldana	9 / 25	11 / 27	0 / 0
3	Holly Holm	23 / 51	37 / 67	1 / 2
4	Holly Holm	39 / 58	39 / 60	1 / 3
4	Irene Aldana	18 / 42	19 / 43	0 / 0
5	Irene Aldana	18 / 55	32 / 71	0 / 0
5	Holly Holm	48 / 95	53 / 102	1 / 3

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14