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Women's Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Germaine de Randamie won · U-DEC R5

Elo1497

Holly HolmvsGermaine de RandamieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Germaine de Randamie won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsGermaine de Randamie: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Holly Holm wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Germaine de Randamie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Holly Holm at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Germaine de Randamie has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Germaine de Randamie

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1497

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Germaine de Randamie

oldest →

KOvs Anna Elmose · May 16

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 18

vs Amanda Nunes · Dec 19

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Oct 20

vs Norma Dumont · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricGermaine de Randamie

3.13

Strikes / min

2.57

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

55%

Strike defense

65%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmGermaine de Randamie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Germaine de Randamie(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -76.0|Blue +76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetGermaine de Randamie

By target zone

18% acc · 23%

Head

32% acc · 35%

57% acc · 27%

Body

85% acc · 43%

83% acc · 49%

Leg

82% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 79%

Distance

43% acc · 61%

76% acc · 21%

Clinch

86% acc · 39%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Germaine de Randamie rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:36

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:21

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:33

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 5Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:39

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 182

Sig Strikes

80 / 150

41.8%

Sig Str %

54%

122 / 235

Total Strikes

144 / 223

0 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:16

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Germaine de Randamie	12 / 25	15 / 28	0 / 1
1	Holly Holm	18 / 42	19 / 45	0 / 2
2	Germaine de Randamie	19 / 34	36 / 52	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	13 / 30	28 / 45	0 / 2
3	Germaine de Randamie	16 / 39	19 / 43	0 / 0
3	Holly Holm	18 / 42	19 / 43	0 / 2
4	Holly Holm	12 / 34	19 / 44	0 / 2
4	Germaine de Randamie	16 / 26	32 / 44	0 / 0
5	Germaine de Randamie	17 / 26	42 / 56	0 / 0
5	Holly Holm	16 / 34	37 / 58	0 / 1

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Germaine de Randamie

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9