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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Holly Holm won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1497

Elo1409

Holly HolmvsBethe CorreiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Holly Holm won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:09

Style matchupHolly Holm: Well-roundedvsBethe Correia: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bethe Correia wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Holly Holm wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bethe Correia at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).
Holly Holm has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm

Red Corner

Bethe Correia

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1497

Elo

1409

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Bethe CorreiaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Sep 16

SUBvs Irene Aldana · May 19

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 19

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 20

vs Karol Rosa · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Holly HolmMetricBethe Correia

3.13

Strikes / min

4.37

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.39

76%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Holly HolmBethe Correia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Holly Holm(10 fights)Bethe Correia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.6|Blue -88.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Holly HolmTargetBethe Correia

By target zone

30% acc · 40%

Head

9% acc · 27%

67% acc · 32%

Body

67% acc · 40%

88% acc · 28%

Leg

42% acc · 33%

By position

46% acc · 92%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Holly Holm rounds

even

Bethe Correia rounds

Round 1Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Holly Holm edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 53

Sig Strikes

15 / 65

58%

Sig Str %

25.3%

25 / 54

Total Strikes

21 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bethe Correia	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 0
1	Holly Holm	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0
2	Bethe Correia	8 / 34	14 / 40	0 / 0
2	Holly Holm	12 / 33	12 / 34	0 / 0
3	Bethe Correia	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0
3	Holly Holm	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15

Bethe Correia

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights11