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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1492

Hernani PerpetuovsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -179 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Hernani Perpetuo

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+167

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-179

(64%)

1353

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hernani Perpetuo

oldest →

vs Jordan Mein · Apr 14

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hernani PerpetuoMetricTim Means

2.73

Strikes / min

5.04

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.14

37%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.64Δ 3.03 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hernani PerpetuoTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hernani Perpetuo(2 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.3|Blue +138.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hernani PerpetuoTargetTim Means

By target zone

24% acc · 57%

Head

31% acc · 52%

42% acc · 13%

Body

52% acc · 29%

78% acc · 30%

Leg

89% acc · 19%

By position

31% acc · 92%

Distance

40% acc · 94%

45% acc · 8%

Clinch

45% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hernani Perpetuo rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:01

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:01

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 189

Sig Strikes

85 / 210

33.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

63 / 191

Total Strikes

85 / 211

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Means	28 / 56	28 / 56	1 / 3
1	Hernani Perpetuo	27 / 88	29 / 90	0 / 0
2	Tim Means	31 / 73	31 / 73	0 / 0
2	Hernani Perpetuo	16 / 62	16 / 62	0 / 3
3	Tim Means	26 / 81	26 / 82	0 / 1
3	Hernani Perpetuo	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0

Hernani Perpetuo

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29