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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Herbert Burns won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1469

Herbert BurnsvsNate LandwehrUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Herbert Burns won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:43

Style matchupHerbert Burns: WrestlervsNate Landwehr: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Herbert Burns wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Herbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Herbert Burns at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Herbert Burns is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nate Landwehr has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Nate Landwehr has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Herbert Burns

Red Corner

Nate Landwehr

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1483

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Herbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20

KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22

KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24

latest

Nate LandwehrL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 23

KOvs Jamall Emmers · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Dec 24

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Jul 25

KOvs Cub Swanson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Herbert BurnsMetricNate Landwehr

1.86

Strikes / min

5.55

5.17

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

41%

Strike defense

51%

2.94

TDs / 15 min

0.73

66%

Takedown defense

71%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.31Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Herbert BurnsNate Landwehr

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Herbert Burns(6 fights)Nate Landwehr(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.7|Blue -13.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Herbert BurnsTargetNate Landwehr

By target zone

20% acc · 29%

Head

38% acc · 75%

71% acc · 71%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 57%

Distance

38% acc · 75%

100% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Herbert Burns rounds

even

Nate Landwehr rounds

Round 1Herbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:34

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 17

Sig Strikes

4 / 9

41%

Sig Str %

44%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

6 / 11

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Landwehr	4 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Herbert Burns	7 / 17	7 / 17	1 / 1	1

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Nate Landwehr

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10