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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Pineda won · KO/TKO

Elo1483

Elo1489

Herbert BurnsvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Pineda won

KO/TKO

Style matchupHerbert Burns: WrestlervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Herbert Burns wins(85.6%)

Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Herbert Burns at -286 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Herbert Burns has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Herbert Burns

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-286

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1483

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Herbert BurnsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20

SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20

KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22

KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Herbert BurnsMetricDaniel Pineda

1.86

Strikes / min

2.85

5.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

41%

Strike defense

45%

2.94

TDs / 15 min

1.42

66%

Takedown defense

54%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.31Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Herbert BurnsDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Herbert Burns(6 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.2|Blue +6.2

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Layoff

Red -2275.0|Blue +2275.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Herbert BurnsTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

77% acc · 88%

40% acc · 20%

Body

57% acc · 7%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

62% acc · 14%

50% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

80% acc · 40%

Ground

79% acc · 84%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Herbert Burns rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:12

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:18Control

Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:27

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 22

Sig Strikes

57 / 75

48%

Sig Str %

77%

35 / 48

Total Strikes

173 / 205

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

75%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

6:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Pineda	24 / 40	87 / 111	1 / 1
1	Herbert Burns	4 / 13	21 / 31	1 / 2
2	Daniel Pineda	33 / 35	86 / 94	0 / 1
2	Herbert Burns	6 / 9	14 / 17	2 / 2

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13