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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Henry Cejudo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1472

Elo1492

Henry CejudovsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHenry Cejudo: Well-roundedvsSergio Pettis: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sergio Pettis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Sergio Pettis

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1472

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Aug 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricSergio Pettis

3.83

Strikes / min

3.88

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

57%

Strike defense

65%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.85

72%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.8|Blue +19.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

21% acc · 76%

77% acc · 28%

Body

75% acc · 12%

89% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

29% acc · 44%

Distance

25% acc · 92%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

71% acc · 47%

Ground

25% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Sergio Pettis rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:42

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:45

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 83

Sig Strikes

25 / 98

41%

Sig Str %

27.3%

85 / 148

Total Strikes

38 / 112

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Pettis	7 / 17	8 / 19	0 / 0
1	Henry Cejudo	19 / 30	34 / 48	1 / 1
2	Sergio Pettis	5 / 30	9 / 34	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	5 / 21	19 / 41	1 / 2
3	Sergio Pettis	13 / 51	21 / 59	0 / 1
3	Henry Cejudo	12 / 32	32 / 59	1 / 2

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14