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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Payton Talbott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1472

Elo1535

Henry CejudovsPayton TalbottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Payton Talbott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHenry Cejudo: Well-roundedvsPayton Talbott: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Payton Talbott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Payton Talbott at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).
Payton Talbott has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Payton Talbott

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1472

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'4"

Height

5'10"

162.56 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 19

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

latest

Payton Talbott

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24

KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25

vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricPayton Talbott

3.83

Strikes / min

6.62

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.41

57%

Strike defense

46%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.78

72%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01Δ 3.22 — meaningful gap+3.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoPayton Talbott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Payton Talbott(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.2|Blue +63.2

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetPayton Talbott

By target zone

40% acc · 55%

Head

53% acc · 66%

83% acc · 17%

Body

87% acc · 25%

81% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

49% acc · 85%

Distance

54% acc · 67%

70% acc · 12%

Clinch

90% acc · 21%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

89% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Payton Talbott rounds

Round 1Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:13

Knockdowns0

50Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Payton Talbott edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:26

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 116

Sig Strikes

134 / 217

51.7%

Sig Str %

62.3%

77 / 136

Total Strikes

156 / 240

1 / 7

TDs

3 / 5

33.3%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

3:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Payton Talbott	40 / 57	50 / 67	2 / 2
1	Henry Cejudo	22 / 44	26 / 49	0 / 2
2	Payton Talbott	50 / 88	57 / 95	1 / 1
2	Henry Cejudo	18 / 38	30 / 52	1 / 1
3	Payton Talbott	44 / 72	49 / 78	0 / 2
3	Henry Cejudo	20 / 34	21 / 35	0 / 4

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Payton Talbott

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6