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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Henry Cejudo won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1472

Elo1419

Henry CejudovsMarlon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:51

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Marlon Moraes

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1472

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Marlon MoraesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricMarlon Moraes

3.83

Strikes / min

3.37

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.87

72%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoMarlon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.7|Blue -52.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetMarlon Moraes

By target zone

49% acc · 81%

Head

39% acc · 61%

81% acc · 14%

Body

88% acc · 12%

80% acc · 4%

Leg

68% acc · 26%

By position

38% acc · 50%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

83% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

87% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Marlon Moraes rounds

Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control2:40

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 171

Sig Strikes

57 / 119

46.3%

Sig Str %

46%

99 / 182

Total Strikes

59 / 121

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Moraes	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Henry Cejudo	5 / 22	5 / 22	0 / 1	0
2	Marlon Moraes	31 / 59	31 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Henry Cejudo	38 / 84	41 / 87	0 / 0	0
3	Marlon Moraes	10 / 23	12 / 25	0 / 1	0
3	Henry Cejudo	47 / 65	53 / 73	1 / 3	1

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11