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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Henry Cejudo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1472

Elo1495

Henry CejudovsDominick CruzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:58

Style matchupHenry Cejudo: Well-roundedvsDominick Cruz: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dominick Cruz has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dominick Cruz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Dominick Cruz

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1472

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 19

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Dominick Cruz

oldest →

vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16

vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21

vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricDominick Cruz

3.83

Strikes / min

3.91

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

57%

Strike defense

70%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

2.82

72%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoDominick Cruz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Dominick Cruz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.4|Blue +23.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -890.0|Blue +890.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetDominick Cruz

By target zone

48% acc · 45%

Head

26% acc · 45%

75% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 24%

92% acc · 43%

Leg

83% acc · 30%

By position

63% acc · 83%

Distance

40% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

82% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Dominick Cruz rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:08

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 83

Sig Strikes

33 / 81

63.5%

Sig Str %

42%

56 / 86

Total Strikes

33 / 81

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 4

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Cruz	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 3
1	Henry Cejudo	19 / 29	21 / 31	1 / 2
2	Dominick Cruz	19 / 52	19 / 52	0 / 1
2	Henry Cejudo	34 / 54	35 / 55	0 / 3

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10