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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rani Yahya won · SUB R1
Elo1365
Elo1495

Henry BrionesvsRani YahyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:01

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Henry Briones enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Henry Briones has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Briones
Red Corner
VS
Rani Yahya
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1365
Elo
1495
45
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry BrionesL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Nov 14
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 15
L
KOvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 16
L
vs Frankie Saenz · May 18
latest
Rani YahyaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19
W
SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21
L
KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23
L
KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry BrionesMetricRani Yahya
3.47
Strikes / min
1.71
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
2.08
53%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.73
52%
Takedown defense
29%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.21evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1562Strikes44.7 vs 20.8Takedowns0.0 vs 2.6Sub Atts0.33 vs 1.25Form-0.8 vs 0.2
Henry BrionesRani Yahya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Henry Briones(5 fights)Rani Yahya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -129.7|Blue +129.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry BrionesTargetRani Yahya

By target zone

0
Head
1
50% acc · 33%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 67%

By position

0
Distance
2
67% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Henry Briones rounds
0
even
1
Rani Yahya rounds
Round 1Rani Yahya edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:39Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 0
Sig Strikes
3 / 4
—
Sig Str %
75%
9 / 10
Total Strikes
14 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rani Yahya3 / 414 / 151 / 22
1Henry Briones0 / 09 / 100 / 00

Henry Briones

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights19