Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Saenz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1365

Elo1387

Henry BrionesvsFrankie SaenzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Frankie Saenz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Frankie Saenz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Briones enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Briones

Red Corner

Frankie Saenz

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1365

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry BrionesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Nov 14

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jul 15

KOvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 16

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 17

latest

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jul 16

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry BrionesMetricFrankie Saenz

3.47

Strikes / min

3.94

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

53%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.74

52%

Takedown defense

61%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry BrionesFrankie Saenz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Briones(5 fights)Frankie Saenz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.7|Blue +21.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry BrionesTargetFrankie Saenz

By target zone

30% acc · 57%

Head

44% acc · 55%

77% acc · 23%

Body

82% acc · 27%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

71% acc · 18%

By position

41% acc · 91%

Distance

48% acc · 61%

67% acc · 9%

Clinch

84% acc · 24%

Ground

59% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Briones rounds

even

Frankie Saenz rounds

Round 1Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 104

Sig Strikes

66 / 120

41.3%

Sig Str %

55%

58 / 123

Total Strikes

84 / 138

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 10

—

TD %

45.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

4:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Frankie Saenz	24 / 45	26 / 47	1 / 2	0
1	Henry Briones	23 / 42	28 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Frankie Saenz	26 / 47	28 / 49	1 / 5	0
2	Henry Briones	13 / 42	20 / 53	0 / 0	0
3	Frankie Saenz	16 / 28	30 / 42	2 / 3	0
3	Henry Briones	8 / 20	10 / 23	0 / 0	1

Henry Briones

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10