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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R2

Elo1362

Henrique da Silva editorial illustration

Elo1473

Henrique da SilvavsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:59

Style matchupHenrique da Silva: StrikervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Henrique da Silva wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henrique da Silva at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henrique da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Henrique da Silva is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Henrique da Silva

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1362

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henrique da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Wilson · Jun 16

SUBvs Joachim Christensen · Oct 16

vs Jordan Johnson · Jan 17

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 17

KOvs Gokhan Saki · Sep 17

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henrique da SilvaMetricPaul Craig

3.89

Strikes / min

2.50

5.28

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

40%

Strike defense

43%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

1.43

22%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.39evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henrique da SilvaPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henrique da Silva(6 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.0|Blue +111.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.3|Blue +47.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henrique da SilvaTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

54% acc · 44%

Head

57% acc · 68%

100% acc · 44%

Body

82% acc · 29%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

43% acc · 38%

Distance

52% acc · 45%

100% acc · 63%

Clinch

75% acc · 39%

Ground

83% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henrique da Silva rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:19

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

31 / 49

62%

Sig Str %

63.5%

23 / 33

Total Strikes

57 / 75

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:23

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	18 / 29	36 / 47	1 / 1	1
1	Henrique da Silva	12 / 15	17 / 22	1 / 3	0
2	Paul Craig	13 / 20	21 / 28	0 / 1	2
2	Henrique da Silva	4 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 0	0

Henrique da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20