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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Henrique da Silva editorial illustration

Elo1491

Henrique da SilvavsJordan JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHenrique da Silva: StrikervsJordan Johnson: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Henrique da Silva wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Jordan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henrique da Silva at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henrique da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jordan Johnson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jordan Johnson has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jordan Johnson has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Henrique da Silva

Red Corner

Jordan Johnson

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1362

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henrique da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Wilson · Jun 16

SUBvs Joachim Christensen · Oct 16

SUBvs Paul Craig · Dec 16

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Jun 17

KOvs Gokhan Saki · Sep 17

latest

Jordan JohnsonW3 streak

oldest →

vs Marcel Fortuna · Jul 17

vs Adam Milstead · Mar 18

SUBvs Adam Yandiev · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henrique da SilvaMetricJordan Johnson

3.89

Strikes / min

3.45

5.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

40%

Strike defense

53%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

3.25

22%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.39Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henrique da SilvaJordan Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henrique da Silva(6 fights)Jordan Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.4|Blue +129.4

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -46.9|Blue +46.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henrique da SilvaTargetJordan Johnson

By target zone

33% acc · 41%

Head

56% acc · 92%

89% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 5%

71% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

52% acc · 77%

Distance

48% acc · 59%

50% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

81% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henrique da Silva rounds

even

Jordan Johnson rounds

Round 1Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:20

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 3Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 43

Sig Strikes

39 / 67

47.3%

Sig Str %

62.3%

30 / 53

Total Strikes

106 / 162

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

9:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Johnson	18 / 38	22 / 42	2 / 3	1
1	Henrique da Silva	17 / 33	18 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Jordan Johnson	7 / 13	37 / 58	1 / 1	0
2	Henrique da Silva	4 / 6	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Jordan Johnson	14 / 16	47 / 62	1 / 1	1
3	Henrique da Silva	1 / 4	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Henrique da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Jordan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4