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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bartosz Fabinski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1399

Hector UrbinavsBartosz FabinskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Bartosz Fabinski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bartosz Fabinski wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Bartosz Fabinski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bartosz Fabinski at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bartosz Fabinski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hector Urbina threatens submissions; Bartosz Fabinski has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Bartosz Fabinski has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bartosz Fabinski has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Hector Urbina

Red Corner

Bartosz Fabinski

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1358

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector Urbina

oldest →

SUBvs Edgar Garcia · Nov 14

KOvs Vicente Luque · Sep 16

latest

Bartosz FabinskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Garreth McLellan · Apr 15

vs Emil Meek · Jul 18

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Nov 18

SUBvs Andre Muniz · Sep 20

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector UrbinaMetricBartosz Fabinski

0.97

Strikes / min

2.23

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.46

39%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

7.10

38%

Takedown defense

80%

3.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.47Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector UrbinaBartosz Fabinski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Urbina(3 fights)Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.9|Blue +40.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector UrbinaTargetBartosz Fabinski

By target zone

38% acc · 90%

Head

62% acc · 92%

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

14% acc · 20%

Distance

63% acc · 40%

78% acc · 70%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

68% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Urbina rounds

even

Bartosz Fabinski rounds

Round 1Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:51Control

Round 2Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:16

11Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:03Control

Round 3Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 25

Sig Strikes

25 / 39

30%

Sig Str %

65%

16 / 31

Total Strikes

89 / 118

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 11

—

TD %

53%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

13:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bartosz Fabinski	8 / 11	42 / 54	2 / 3	0
1	Hector Urbina	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Bartosz Fabinski	11 / 19	26 / 35	3 / 5	0
2	Hector Urbina	5 / 14	8 / 17	0 / 0	2
3	Bartosz Fabinski	6 / 9	21 / 29	1 / 3	0
3	Hector Urbina	5 / 9	7 / 11	0 / 0	1

Hector Urbina

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6