Flyweight

3 Rounds

Hector Sandoval won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1465

Hector SandovalvsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Hector Sandoval won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:24

Style matchupHector Sandoval: WrestlervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Hector Sandoval wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Hector Sandoval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hector Sandoval at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Sandoval is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Hector Sandoval has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Hector Sandoval has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Hector Sandoval has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matt Schnell has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hector Sandoval

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1491

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector Sandoval

oldest →

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Jul 16

vs Fredy Serrano · Dec 16

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 17

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector SandovalMetricMatt Schnell

3.31

Strikes / min

4.07

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

65%

Strike defense

55%

3.49

TDs / 15 min

0.60

71%

Takedown defense

43%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector SandovalMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Sandoval(4 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.9|Blue -25.9

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector SandovalTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

59% acc · 69%

Head

28% acc · 50%

86% acc · 19%

Body

67% acc · 25%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

80% acc · 25%

By position

38% acc · 16%

Distance

25% acc · 38%

68% acc · 53%

Clinch

67% acc · 63%

83% acc · 31%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Sandoval rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Hector Sandoval edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns3

Control0:58

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 50

Sig Strikes

16 / 40

64%

Sig Str %

40%

52 / 70

Total Strikes

27 / 52

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

37%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Schnell	16 / 40	27 / 52	1 / 1	1
1	Hector Sandoval	32 / 50	52 / 70	3 / 8	0

Hector Sandoval

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18