Flyweight

3 Rounds

Hector Sandoval won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1359

Hector SandovalvsFredy SerranoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Hector Sandoval won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHector Sandoval: WrestlervsFredy Serrano: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Fredy Serrano wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Hector Sandoval wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fredy Serrano at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fredy Serrano is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Hector Sandoval has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Hector Sandoval

Red Corner

Fredy Serrano

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1491

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector Sandoval

oldest →

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Jul 16

KOvs Matt Schnell · Apr 17

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 17

latest

Fredy Serrano

oldest →

KOvs Bentley Syler · Mar 15

KOvs Yao Zhikui · Nov 15

vs Ryan Benoit · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector SandovalMetricFredy Serrano

3.31

Strikes / min

1.58

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

1.89

65%

Strike defense

61%

3.49

TDs / 15 min

2.84

71%

Takedown defense

84%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector SandovalFredy Serrano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Sandoval(4 fights)Fredy Serrano(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.0|Blue -132.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector SandovalTargetFredy Serrano

By target zone

32% acc · 42%

Head

8% acc · 23%

79% acc · 45%

Body

60% acc · 41%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

80% acc · 36%

By position

47% acc · 61%

Distance

23% acc · 82%

57% acc · 39%

Clinch

50% acc · 18%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Sandoval rounds

even

Fredy Serrano rounds

Round 1Hector Sandoval edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Hector Sandoval edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:10

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Hector Sandoval edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 67

Sig Strikes

22 / 87

49%

Sig Str %

25%

42 / 76

Total Strikes

22 / 87

2 / 12

TDs

0 / 8

15.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fredy Serrano	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 3	0
1	Hector Sandoval	15 / 24	16 / 25	1 / 7	0
2	Fredy Serrano	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 5	0
2	Hector Sandoval	11 / 28	13 / 30	0 / 2	2
3	Fredy Serrano	9 / 35	9 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Hector Sandoval	7 / 15	13 / 21	1 / 3	0

Hector Sandoval

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4

Fredy Serrano

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4