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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tim Boetsch won · S-DEC R3

Elo1368

Elo1371

Hector LombardvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHector Lombard: Well-roundedvsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(78.8%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Boetsch at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Hector Lombard

Red Corner

Tim Boetsch

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1368

Elo

1371

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Tim BoetschL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16

SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18

vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector LombardMetricTim Boetsch

3.02

Strikes / min

2.93

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

53%

Strike defense

57%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

1.45

77%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector LombardTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Lombard(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector LombardTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

28% acc · 69%

Head

28% acc · 20%

100% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 37%

33% acc · 8%

Leg

85% acc · 43%

By position

31% acc · 85%

Distance

54% acc · 78%

40% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 22%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Lombard rounds

even

Tim Boetsch rounds

Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:49

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:15

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Tim Boetsch edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:21

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 77

Sig Strikes

54 / 98

33.3%

Sig Str %

55%

47 / 99

Total Strikes

57 / 101

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 9

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Boetsch	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 3
1	Hector Lombard	9 / 28	15 / 34	1 / 1
2	Tim Boetsch	16 / 28	16 / 28	0 / 2
2	Hector Lombard	10 / 26	21 / 38	0 / 1
3	Tim Boetsch	19 / 35	22 / 38	0 / 4
3	Hector Lombard	7 / 23	11 / 27	1 / 2

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights20