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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Hector Lombard won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1368

Elo1490

Hector LombardvsRousimar PalharesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · Friday, December 14, 2012Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Hector Lombard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupHector Lombard: Well-roundedvsRousimar Palhares: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Hector Lombard wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Hector Lombard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hector Lombard at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Rousimar Palhares has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Hector Lombard has 77pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Hector Lombard

Red Corner

Rousimar Palhares

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1368

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Rousimar Palhares

oldest →

SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11

vs Dan Miller · Aug 11

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12

KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector LombardMetricRousimar Palhares

3.02

Strikes / min

1.75

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.04

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

3.93

77%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

4.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector LombardRousimar Palhares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Lombard(10 fights)Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.6|Blue +122.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector LombardTargetRousimar Palhares

By target zone

53% acc · 96%

Head

0% acc

33% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

80% acc · 67%

By position

45% acc · 63%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

70% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Lombard rounds

even

Rousimar Palhares rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:45

Knockdowns2

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 46

Sig Strikes

6 / 13

52%

Sig Str %

46%

26 / 48

Total Strikes

6 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rousimar Palhares	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Hector Lombard	24 / 46	26 / 48	0 / 0	0

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Rousimar Palhares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8