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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1368

Elo1505

Hector LombardvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:46

Style matchupHector Lombard: Well-roundedvsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hector Lombard

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1368

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

vs Thales Leites · Sep 18

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector LombardMetricNeil Magny

3.02

Strikes / min

3.40

3.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

53%

Strike defense

51%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

2.17

77%

Takedown defense

55%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hector LombardNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hector Lombard(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.7|Blue +137.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +616.0|Blue -616.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector LombardTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

76% acc · 90%

Head

133

73% acc · 90%

67% acc · 3%

Body

92% acc · 8%

80% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

57% acc · 20%

Distance

46% acc · 22%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

84% acc · 68%

Ground

100

89% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hector Lombard rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns1

Control3:15

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:20

Knockdowns1

114Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 79

Sig Strikes

148 / 197

63.7%

Sig Str %

67.7%

75 / 95

Total Strikes

196 / 250

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:35

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	15 / 28	28 / 42	0 / 1	0
1	Hector Lombard	50 / 62	64 / 77	1 / 1	0
2	Neil Magny	114 / 142	142 / 172	0 / 0	2
2	Hector Lombard	8 / 13	9 / 14	0 / 2	0
3	Neil Magny	19 / 27	26 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Hector Lombard	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37