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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1368
Hector Lombard
Elo1485
Anthony Smith

Hector LombardvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:33

Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Smith at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Hector Lombard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Hector Lombard has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).
  • Anthony Smith has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hector Lombard
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1368
Elo
1485
48
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'4"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hector LombardL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16
L
KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16
L
vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17
L
vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18
L
vs Thales Leites · Sep 18
latest
Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23
W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hector LombardMetricAnthony Smith
3.02
Strikes / min
3.19
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
53%
Strike defense
44%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.44
77%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1479 vs 1523Strikes33.9 vs 38.4Takedowns1.6 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.22 vs 0.40Form-0.9 vs 0.6
Hector LombardAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Hector Lombard(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -117.4|Blue +117.4
Recent Form
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +55.0|Blue -55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hector LombardTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

26
29% acc · 40%
Head
27
26% acc · 77%
7
88% acc · 11%
Body
6
60% acc · 17%
32
89% acc · 49%
Leg
2
67% acc · 6%

By position

52
48% acc · 80%
Distance
27
27% acc · 77%
10
50% acc · 15%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 17%
3
50% acc · 5%
Ground
2
40% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Hector Lombard rounds
0
even
1
Anthony Smith rounds
Round 1Hector Lombard edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:17
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Hector Lombard edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control1:19
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Anthony Smith edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
65 / 134
Sig Strikes
35 / 115
47.3%
Sig Str %
31%
68 / 137
Total Strikes
38 / 118
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:36
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Smith8 / 448 / 440 / 10
1Hector Lombard31 / 6232 / 630 / 00
2Anthony Smith10 / 3613 / 390 / 00
2Hector Lombard22 / 4324 / 451 / 20
3Anthony Smith17 / 3517 / 350 / 00
3Hector Lombard12 / 2912 / 290 / 00

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25