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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · SUB R1

Elo1356

Elo1504

Hayder HassanvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:13

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Hayder Hassan has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Vicente Luque has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Vicente Luque has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hayder Hassan

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1356

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hayder Hassan

oldest →

SUBvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 15

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hayder HassanMetricVicente Luque

2.11

Strikes / min

4.80

3.16

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

48%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.89

25%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hayder HassanVicente Luque

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hayder Hassan(2 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -148.5|Blue +148.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hayder HassanTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

30% acc · 50%

100% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 25%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

54% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hayder Hassan rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Hayder Hassan edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 28

Sig Strikes

12 / 26

53%

Sig Str %

46%

15 / 28

Total Strikes

12 / 26

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vicente Luque	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0	1
1	Hayder Hassan	15 / 28	15 / 28	0 / 1	0

Hayder Hassan

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23