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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · U-DEC R3
Elo1355
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas

Hatsu HiokivsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Hatsu Hioki
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Lamas
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1355
Elo
1493
43
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hatsu HiokiL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Clay Guida · Jan 13
L
vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13
W
vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14
L
KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15
latest
Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hatsu HiokiMetricRicardo Lamas
2.42
Strikes / min
3.13
2.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
65%
Strike defense
57%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
1.84
54%
Takedown defense
46%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1531Strikes45.5 vs 12.5Takedowns2.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 1.0
Hatsu HiokiRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.0|Blue +138.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hatsu HiokiTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

6
24% acc · 35%
Head
15
33% acc · 42%
10
53% acc · 59%
Body
11
100% acc · 31%
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
10
59% acc · 28%

By position

12
30% acc · 71%
Distance
28
43% acc · 78%
3
100% acc · 18%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 8%
2
100% acc · 12%
Ground
5
100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Hatsu Hioki rounds
2
even
0
Ricardo Lamas rounds
Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:19
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:14Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:13
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:49
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 45
Sig Strikes
36 / 73
37%
Sig Str %
50%
36 / 68
Total Strikes
86 / 123
4 / 5
TDs
0 / 1
83.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
4
0
Rev
1
7:21
Ctrl Time
1:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Lamas9 / 1619 / 260 / 10
1Hatsu Hioki7 / 1624 / 362 / 20
2Ricardo Lamas14 / 2822 / 360 / 03
2Hatsu Hioki3 / 95 / 121 / 20
3Ricardo Lamas13 / 2945 / 610 / 01
3Hatsu Hioki7 / 207 / 201 / 10

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17