Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hatsu Hioki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1353

Hatsu HiokivsIvan MenjivarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · Saturday, March 1, 2014Macau, China

Official fight result

Hatsu Hioki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Hatsu Hioki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hatsu Hioki enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hatsu Hioki has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Hatsu Hioki has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hatsu Hioki

Red Corner

Ivan Menjivar

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1355

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hatsu HiokiL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12

vs Clay Guida · Jan 13

vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14

KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15

latest

Ivan MenjivarL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Albert · Feb 12

vs Mike Easton · Jul 12

SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Feb 13

vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hatsu HiokiMetricIvan Menjivar

2.42

Strikes / min

2.78

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

65%

Strike defense

65%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.56

54%

Takedown defense

38%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hatsu HiokiIvan Menjivar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hatsu HiokiTargetIvan Menjivar

By target zone

21% acc · 41%

Head

25% acc · 52%

58% acc · 48%

Body

50% acc · 30%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

42% acc · 19%

By position

31% acc · 79%

Distance

27% acc · 67%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

54% acc · 26%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

40% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hatsu Hioki rounds

even

Ivan Menjivar rounds

Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:08

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:08

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:21

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 86

Sig Strikes

27 / 85

40.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

52 / 117

Total Strikes

57 / 117

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ivan Menjivar	4 / 11	21 / 29	0 / 1	0
1	Hatsu Hioki	5 / 9	16 / 25	1 / 3	0
2	Ivan Menjivar	11 / 26	23 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Hatsu Hioki	9 / 23	16 / 33	2 / 2	2
3	Ivan Menjivar	12 / 48	13 / 50	0 / 0	1
3	Hatsu Hioki	15 / 54	20 / 59	1 / 1	0

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights8